Insights

In financial markets, if it looks certain, it probably isn’t.

Some domestic investors seek diversification by coupling Australian shares with domestic investment property (usually residential).

At Quay, we like to think of ourselves as bottom-up stock and industry analysts. We try to minimise risk through our investment process. However, we are also fully aware of our limitations. No matter how much due diligence we undertake, there will always be unknowns.

Here we are seven years later, and the fear of the great bond collapse is upon us - again. This time, the catalyst appears to be a near universal acceptance that monetary policy is reaching its limit.

It now seems the consensus gets it. Interest rates will stay lower for longer and are unlikely to ‘normalise’ any time soon.

At the start of June we attended the annual National Association Real Estate Investment Trust (NAREIT) conference in New York. It was a good opportunity to meet many of our investees, their competitors, and receive an update on North American real estate.

The month of May was particularly brutal for a number of US and Australian retailers. In the US, GAP, L Brands, Macy’s Nordstrom and others reported weaker than expected or declining sales and profits. 

It’s the time of year when the nation’s economic eyes turn to the Federal Budget. The fact we have an election in the following weeks adds more than the usual scrutiny to the “bottom line”. Both sides of politics talk of “budget repair” and the need to get back to surplus.

Investment themes play an important part in the Quay investment process. Our regular readers would be aware of our favourable view towards parts of the US housing market.